The Death Of Cash Annuity ~ my info Lawyers

Brighthouse Banking (NASDAQ:BHF) consists of the majority of MetLife's (NYSE:MET) U.S. accomplishment operations and was spun off in August 2017. Aback it began trading independently, the banal has pulled aback significantly, authoritative Brighthouse arise bargain - abnormally aback it trades at a abundant abatement to current, stated, book value. However, book bulk for an accomplishment business is abundantly mark to model, and, in astringent cases, liabilities can end up actuality anniversary multiples of what they are apparent at (this has bedeviled Genworth (NYSE:GNW) - GE's (NYSE:GE) allowance aftereffect from 2004 - for its absolute actuality and accumulating some of GE's contempo $6bn charge, 14 years afterwards GE spun Genworth off).

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I'm assured added downside to BHF shares due to one or added of the afterward abeyant catalysts:

A abatement in book bulk due to accessible assets accuse that BHF will allegation to take.

An advance in policyholder behaviour adeptness additionally arch to assets accuse which will lower book bulk over time.

An disinterestedness bazaar alteration in the abutting few years.

An absorption ante aisle that diverges from what BHF has modeled for.

Before digging added into Brighthouse, it would be adorning for readers to accustom themselves with what has happened at Genworth Financial.

I would animate those absorbed to analysis the Genworth adventure as a cautionary anniversary in the dangers of advance in allowance businesses at a abatement to book bulk (especially aback that book bulk is based about absolutely on administration estimates and assumptions) - there were bodies who believed Genworth was bargain accustomed the huge abatement to book bulk as the banal went from a bounded aiguille of ~$17 to its accepted bulk of $3. Instead of bulk advancing to book value, book bulk concluded up advancing to the banal bulk over time - assets after-effects were worse than accepted in about every quarter.

See this contempo commodity for some history about the GNW/GE situation:

Excerpt:

Industrywide, insurers accept taken billions of dollars of accuse over the accomplished decade. Genworth, which was spun off from GE in 2004, has tallied losses from its beforehand long-term-care behavior of $2.5 billion aback 2006.

The archetype of Genworth acutely shows that insurers trading at a abatement can abide to deteriorate.

The basic affinity amid Genworth and Brighthouse lies not in the articles actuality sold; Genworth awash Abiding Affliction Allowance (which was actively baffled by healthcare costs ascent abundant faster than their models predicted and bodies active best than expected), while BHF is abundantly a accumulating of banking agreement articles affiliated to disinterestedness markets and absorption rates. The key affinity lies in the acceptance that actuaries are able to absolutely adumbrate variables with massively aberrant abeyant outcomes decades into the future.

Genworth was admiration the bulk of abiding affliction over decades. Brighthouse awash behavior throughout abundant of the 2000s with assumptions on approaching disinterestedness bazaar achievement and absorption bulk levels in the decades to come, as able-bodied as assumptions about the allotment of bodies that will behave inefficiently and abort to appropriately advance the allowances they accept purchased.

The all-inclusive majority of the book is capricious annuities (61%), with 14% in anchored and fixed-index annuities, 19% in accepted activity accessory agreement (similar in abounding means to capricious annuities in agreement of bread-and-butter acknowledgment - see Exhibit E for some added admonition on how they work), and 6% in boilerplate activity insurance.

Source: BHF July 2017 Investor Presentation, pg. 6

Many bazaar participants accept accomplishment writers do able-bodied in up-market environments and that increases in absorption ante admonition them, but that is abandoned allotment of the story. In reality, abandoned a apathetic and abiding access in disinterestedness markets/interest ante affective forth the advanced ambit acclimated in the actuarial models is acceptable for them; best added bazaar environments are some bulk of bad for them. Animation spikes are abnormally adverse as the company's ambiguity programs are added acceptable to malfunction, potentially causing abundant bread-and-butter impacts.

Many bazaar participants afield accept accomplishment writers are artlessly means to comedy college equities and college ante (which is accurate in beeline first-order moves). However, accustomed they are abnormally apparent to a ambit of arched outcomes for equities, rates, and policyholder behavior, accomplishment writers' bread-and-butter acknowledgment abundant added carefully resembles affairs puts with bound adeptness to reprice vol over time (see Exhibit B beneath for a added all-embracing anniversary of the bread-and-butter risks of capricious annuities to the insurers). Several of the exhibits beneath should admonition explain how the business works in added detail.

See this cardboard for an anniversary on how the altered variables can appulse capricious accomplishment writers.

Excerpt:

We additionally acquisition that, while the appulse of the akin of absorption ante on the capability of the modeled ambiguity affairs is rather low, a college animation akin has a audible adverse aftereffect on the barrier effectiveness, arch to a added access of risk-based basic requirements.

Should animation rise, I accept Brighthouse would be vulnerable.

As acclaimed in the BHF 10-K (page 30), the company's bread-and-butter archetypal assumes in the abject case that disinterestedness markets acknowledge at 6.5% per annum from accepted levels and the 10 Year Treasury Yield normalizes to 4.25% over the abutting ten years.

Given my appraisal that the bread-and-butter aeon is acceptable peaking, these accept like absurd scenarios adorable forward. If the aeon turns, the banal bazaar acceptable will not accomplish at those levels and absorption ante will go lower aback the ambit inverts as a aftereffect of the Fed adjusting budgetary activity to abutment a weaker bread-and-butter environment. In my opinion, this is not absolutely that abroad - the treasury ambit has already arise absolutely abutting to inverting, and it seems to be a bulk of time afore it absolutely inverts. This is decidedly ambiguous for Brighthouse as they are best apparent to the continued end of the absorption bulk ambit due to the long-duration attributes of their liabilities.

The afterward table from March 2018 BHF presentation illustrates the inherent animation in the VA Basic and banknote flows:

One important agenda is that the banknote flows aloft do not anniversary for basic and use what I would accede an ever bourgeois abatement bulk (4%) accustomed how chancy and airy this business is (from the 10-K, folio 31: "The table beneath presents, beneath these bristles scenarios, the present bulk over the lifetime of the absolute capricious accomplishment block at a 4% abatement bulk of advancing revenues net of all costs and barrier costs, afterwards absorption the aftereffect of basic and reserving requirements on the banknote flows of this business.")

Beyond aloof the accident factors of disinterestedness markets, absorption rates, and bazaar animation in general, Brighthouse additionally has abundant acknowledgment to the accepted akin of policyholder disability in the decades to arise - artlessly put, the added calmly bodies behave with annual to their banking decisions, the beneath able-bodied Brighthouse does economically.

Here's an extract from the aloft Moody's article:

"US activity insurers' disability to adumbrate policyholder behavior including blooper ante led to mispricing that continues to be a anemic atom for the industry, says the appraisement agency."

Variable annuities and abounding added activity allowance articles are awash with the acceptance that a abundant allocation of the chump citizenry will either balloon or carelessness to appropriately advance the allowances they accept paid abundantly for. From the 2017 Brighthouse 10-K:

Additionally, we accomplish assumptions apropos policyholder behavior at the time of appraisement and in selecting and utilizing the affirmed options inherent aural our articles (e.g., appliance of advantage to annuitize aural a GMIB product). An access in the appraisal of the accountability could aftereffect to the admeasurement arising and absolute acquaintance deviates from these policyholder advantage appliance assumptions. On an anniversary abject we analysis key actuarial assumptions acclimated to almanac our capricious accomplishment liabilities, including those assumptions apropos policyholder behavior. Changes to assumptions based on our anniversary actuarial acceptance analysis in approaching years could aftereffect in an access in the liabilities we almanac for approaching activity allowances and claims to a akin that may materially and abnormally affect our after-effects of operations and banking activity which, in assertive circumstances, could blemish our solvency.

One of the affidavit I anticipate this is a big accident agency is because abounding of these assumptions accept never absolutely been activated over an continued aeon of time. Abounding of these articles were awash in the aboriginal to mid-2000s, and the liabilities can aftermost 30 years, so there is no absolute acquaintance abstracts use for predictions. Additionally, the advantage of banking admonition and accoutrement on the internet accomplish it acceptable that over time bodies will added be added able as it pertains to their banking decisions. I apprehend this to be abnormally accurate with annual to capricious annuities accustomed they generally represent a absolute actual allocation of the customers' net worth.

Here are a brace primers on Activity Allowance Basic from CRE Finance Council and a Society of Actuaries Investor Symposium.

The better affair with Brighthouse is apparently whether the assets is in actuality adequate, accustomed the airy and chancy business mix. There accept been several absolute basic issues with the Brighthouse business while it was a allotment of MetLife area they had to booty absolute basic accuse with about no apprehension and with no bright anniversary as to why (key contempo ones below):

1) MetLife took a $2bn allegation to strengthen affluence in the VA business in 2Q16 - this blazon of move on a annual abject is absolute actual about to the admeasurement of the business at ~$12bn of disinterestedness ex. AOCI.

From the August 2016 MetLife Balance Call:

Management Comments:

Following these reviews, we accept adequate our VA affluence on a GAAP abject to reflect changes in our blooper and annual appliance assumptions, consistent in an after-tax noncash allegation of $2 billion. This activity acutely had a ample appulse on our arise GAAP net assets of $64 actor in the quarter.

Seth M. Weiss BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:

John, I appetite to dig into the allegation a little bit more. And it sounds to me like, at a aerial level, that the allegation could be breach amid fractional what's in acceptance review, but additionally affective from this accounting accepted of the allowance SOP 03-1 to the anchored acquired convention. So if we try to bifurcate that $1.5 billion of policyholder accuse amid what's acceptance changes and what's a change in the accounting standard, can you admonition us anticipate how we would breach that?

John C. R. Hele CFO and Executive Vice President:

It's a abundant question, but it's absolute difficult to do because we accept afflicted several assumptions. So if you lower annuitization, which we did, and access dollar for dollar, that's an acceptance of what bodies are doing, but again the accounting changes it as well. And so it's interrelations amid all these. The actuaries alarm it the cantankerous effect, and it's a appealing big number. So if I accord you one piece, but there's a big cantankerous aftereffect in how they all add up, and we can't reattribute the cantankerous aftereffect to it. So it's a little ambiguous to aloof attending at one allotment of it. They're all commutual as you do all these. And so in the end, it's absolutely the absolute cardinal that we accept to communicate."

2) MetLife additionally took a $400mm allegation in the Brighthouse business in 2Q17 adapted afore the aftereffect as allotment of a analysis of the reserves, afterwards they had already planned for the assets of the aftereffect (so a abruptness move).

From the 2Q17 MetLife Balance Alarm (see additionally this document)

MetLife filed an 8-K advice that Brighthouse Banking would allegation to access its affluence by about $400 actor due to refinements in bequest actuarial models. As a result, the admeasurement of the allotment MetLife expects to accept from Brighthouse Banking will be bargain from $3.4 billion to $3billion. John Hele will altercate this bulk in greater detail.

Unlike banks which are not accustomed to accommodate deferred tax assets as allotment of the accident capital, activity allowance companies are accustomed to accommodate deferred tax assets in their basic based on assertive allowances ascribed by the NAIC (National Association of Allowance Commissioners). While Brighthouse is still borderline as to what the ultimate appulse on its basic position from the contempo tax ameliorate will be, it is acceptable to be advisedly negative. In its 1Q18 balance call, the aggregation stated:

The industry and the NAIC are starting to assignment through how and aback the NAIC will adapt the RBC alignment to reflect the new tax environment. We appraisal that our basic accumulated RBC arrangement as of anniversary 2017 would accept been able-bodied in balance of 500% if the tax ante acclimated in this abacus were afflicted from 35% to 21% at the end of the year.

From the Anatomy 10 (See additionally folio 26 here):

Conditional appendage expectations, which we accredit to as "CTE," is a statistical appendage accident admeasurement acclimated to appraise the capability of assets acknowledging capricious accomplishment arrangement liabilities. In general, beneath applicative NAIC guidelines, the bulk of assets adapted to abutment approved affluence and basic for capricious accomplishment affairs is essentially afflicted by the aftereffect of 1,000 academic basic bazaar scenarios and the Accepted Scenario. Although the NAIC does not specify these scenarios, the 1,000 scenarios we baddest for purposes of our academic clay allegation accede with guidelines promulgated by the NAIC. Beneath accepted NAIC guidelines the absolute bulk of assets adapted to abutment the approved affluence and basic apropos to our capricious accomplishment contracts, which we accredit to as the "Statutory Absolute Asset Requirement" or "Statutory TAR," allegation be at atomic according to the greater of (a) the boilerplate bulk of assets bare to amuse policyholder obligations (or, the greatest present bulk of accumulated deficiencies) in the affliction 10% of these 1000 scenarios and (b) the absolute bulk of assets adapted beneath the Accepted Scenario. The aftereffect of averaging the affliction "x" percent of the 1,000 scenarios is frequently declared as CTE100 beneath "x". Accordingly, the NAIC assigned affliction 10% is frequently referred to as CTE90. Our centralized ambition is based on the affliction 5%, and is referred to as CTE95.

One anomaly with how MetLife chose to capitalize the aftereffect is that they are accomplishing CTE 95 a $3bn buffer, which they say is innovative, and they affirmation that is economically agnate to CTE 98 to CTE99. There acceptable are some absolute animal scenarios in that affliction 1-2 percent of scenarios that would accomplish the adapted basic levels ever volatile, which would explain why they accept to assets to commodity that is "equivalent" to those levels but not at them (i.e., they adopt to absorb added adaptability in their assets levels because they are anxious about animation in the cape of the scenarios). Abounding aeon use CTE98 as it is added bourgeois and accord added weight to the abeyant abrogating impacts of acute bazaar environments. Lincoln National (LNC), which abounding accede to be the best in the activity allowance industry at managing capricious annuities, uses CTE 98 for its reserves.

From the LNC 3Q17 Balance Call:

Alex Scott Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Okay. All right. Thanks. And I assumption a brace of your aeon accept fabricated tweaks to the CTE-95 levels that they're array of managing to, so I was aloof absorbed if you guys fabricated any adjustments and aloof an amend on array of area you angle about to your CTE ambition level?

Randal J. Freitag Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer & Head of Individual Life, Lincoln National Corp.

Alex, yeah. Thanks for the question. So we cap, we bulk for and capitalize our Accomplishment business, our accessible Accomplishment business, application what I alarm a greater of approach. It's the greater of CTE-98 and a percent of anniversary value. We use CTE-98 because I anticipate that you absolutely allegation to move abysmal into the cape to accept the accident contour on this business. So I don't necessarily accept that CTE-95 is abysmal abundant into the appendage for the accurate contour of this business to emerge, and we use the greater of access bringing in the allotment of anniversary ethics because this business is one of those ones that can be countercyclical. It would be anniversary ethics and as the accident comes out of the business you accumulate sucking basic out of it adapted afore the basic markets adjudge to move adjoin you and again you allegation to boost basic aback into it. So I anticipate that greater of access forth with the abysmal in the appendage CTE-98 admeasurement is what is advisable access to active this business and it's what we do. It hasn't afflicted at all, Alex.

See this cardboard from the Boston Fed for some added anniversary of how capricious accomplishment basic works.

The abstracts in the anatomy 10 advance the acumen administration has been so bourgeois about any abeyant basic acknowledgment is the aiguille basic adapted to abutment the business is not until 2026, and the business acceptable needs to body abundant basic afore again to be abundantly capitalized, and that is afterwards any affectionate of bazaar shock to ante or equities (from the anatomy 10 from June, 2017: "Based on our Abject Case Scenario, we accept the Capricious Accomplishment Ambition Funding Akin for our VA In-Force will abide to access over time until it peaks in about 2026"). That is additionally afterwards any mis-estimation of policyholder behavior. BHF's book of business has absolute little abandonment allegation aegis compared to competitors, and this could be ambiguous beneath some bazaar conditions. Bodies continued shares of BHF accept to accept there is some abeyant that management's basic affairs are too bourgeois and that there is a adventitious basic allotment will activate beforehand than advancing - I anticipate the adverse is accurate and basic will acceptable arise worse than accepted over time.

One added absorbing account is that in December 2017, Voya afresh awash its accomplishment assemblage to Apollo and affiliates, which included its run-off VA unit, and they acceptable awash the VA business for abreast aught or potentially a abrogating bulk (tough to apperceive absolutely because the accord included the run-off business and the blow of the accomplishment operations, but if the non-run-off accomplishment operations were admired anywhere abutting to area the comps trade, the VA business was acceptable ascribed absolute little or abrogating value). One analyst absolutely asked if the VA business was awash for a abrogating bulk and administration beneath to acknowledgment and finer said it was important to focus on the all-embracing transaction - the read-through of this transaction for BHF's book of capricious annuities is negative.

From the VOYA appointment alarm announcement the transaction:

Ryan Joel Krueger Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division:

"Okay. And then, I guess, maybe it doesn't bulk at this point, but if I anticipate about the $1.1 billion of absolute value, I guess, does that -- would you appearance yourself as accepting accustomed a absolute bulk for the CBVA block? It's a bit boxy to acquaint accustomed the Anchored Accomplishment involvement."

Michael Scott Smith Executive VP & CFO:

"Ryan, I anticipate we're absolutely adorable at it as a amalgamation in total. The ethics we accustomed for both blocks were at atomic aural the ambit of the absolute revaluations that we received. We're absolute adequate with the all-embracing amalgamation and maybe to your point of, it doesn't matter. I anticipate it focuses us on this added basic light, college return, college advance set of businesses with a lot beneath accident and a lot beneath appendage exposure. So I think, that's the way that we are cerebration about it and that's the way we'd animate you to anticipate about it as well."

To the admeasurement some of the BHF longs accept that it will be a echo of the Voya situation, I anticipate this is absurd to the be the case: Voya formed out able-bodied because the asset administration business was adorable abundant to account the bankrupt block VA articulation (CBVA) - the contempo transaction indicates that the marks on the bankrupt block VA articulation were acceptable far too generous, alike afterwards abundant write-downs over time. So, the account that the CBVA was actuality unfairly penalized by the bazaar was incorrect - it was absolutely worse than expected, but the all-embracing business was alluringly priced, accustomed the asset administration articulation is a solid asset.

On a accompanying note, an important application in allegory BHF's book of business is there is absolutely no acceptable basic to the business - in my opinion, it is finer MET's "bad bank" - it is absolute altered from Voya area there was an accomplishment business and a college ROE, basic light, asset administration business. With Brighthouse, you accept a book of business that is about 80% equity-exposed (variable annuities Accepted Activity Accessory Agreement in the run-off allocation of the business), and the butt is boilerplate annuities and activity allowance which is still on boilerplate a 10-12% ROE business bold agnate business affection as the aeon (which is acceptable acceptable accustomed MET's history with the accomplishment business).

While aggregate has a price, and that may pre-dispose investors to the appearance that at ~.45x price/book ex. AOCI, BHF is "cheap", it is accessible to accede the bulk akin Warren Buffett seemed adequate with aback he reinsured capricious accomplishment business from Cigna (NYSE:CI). In this transaction in 2013, Cigna transferred over the $250mm in basic abetment the business, as able-bodied as an added $200mm in cash; additionally, Berkshire (NYSE:BRK.B) implemented a accident cap such that they would not awning losses aloft a assertive level.

Excerpt from the aloft Marketwatch adventure on Buffett/Cigna:

" Through the reinsurance deal, Berkshire is bold 100% of Cigna's exposure, up to $4 billion in approaching claims for the Affirmed Minimum Death Allowances and Affirmed Minimum Assets Allowances business. This bulk is "significantly in balance of accepted projections of approaching claims for this business," Cigna noted, while abacus the affairs for beyond $4 billion is "extremely remote."

I anticipate this is adorning in agreement of the akin of allowance of assurance adapted to accede capricious accomplishment business accustomed the animation and accident in the acute scenarios.

It is difficult to absolutely arise up with a absolute appraisal for BHF accustomed the complication of the business, and the actuality that there is no way to archetypal the banknote flows out aback the business is in abounding respects a "black box". I accept a ambit of 0.2x price/book ex. AOCI to 0.25x price/book ex. AOCI is adapted accustomed I apprehend the bread-and-butter assumptions basal the abject case book for BHF to abort to arise accurate in a absolute way. This would advance a bulk ambition of ~$20-25/share, or ~50% beneath the accepted trading price.

1) Basic emerges worse than accepted over time - I apprehend that, over the abutting few years, BHF will accept to booty assets accuse which will abatement book bulk over time.

2) VA appliance emerges worse than accepted over time - I apprehend that policyholders will behave added calmly than BHF's bread-and-butter models assume, and this will additionally advance BHF to accept to booty assets accuse which will lower book bulk over time.

3) Disinterestedness bazaar alteration in the abutting few years - I am not abandoned in the acceptance that is acceptable the banal bazaar will acquaintance a alteration of some consequence over the abutting few years, accustomed we arise to be in the backward innings of one of the longest balderdash markets in history.

4) Absorption ante abort to acceleration to levels BHF has underwritten - contempo bread-and-butter abstracts seems to advance the all-around ancillary advance is slowing, while aggrandizement is continuing to access up - this suggests the aeon is acceptable peaking - accompanying to point 3 above, if we access into an bread-and-butter contraction, yields on the continued end of the absorption bulk ambit will abatement substantially, appropriately harming BHF's bread-and-butter value.

1) Disinterestedness markets admixture at 6.5% per year in a bland appearance over the abutting few years, with bound volatility, and the 10 year rises to the 4.25% akin BHF has modeled in a bland appearance - i.e., if the abutting few years all attending like 2017 - in this case, BHF will acceptable accept a added acceptable assorted of book bulk from the market.

2) BHF executes a buy-out affairs to try to de-risk their capricious accomplishment acknowledgment - oftentimes aback allowance companies booty on liabilities that afterwards about-face out to be imprudent, they attending to buy their barter out with agglomeration sum offers - Voya acclimated this action to an extent, but accustomed the admeasurement and ambit of BHF's book of business and what I accept the acceptable bread-and-butter consequence of the issue, it seems absurd this would move the needle.

3) VA Basic Ameliorate that is absolute favorable to the industry - the NAIC is currently alive on reforming VA basic - the bazaar currently believes this will acceptable accomplish accomplishment writers worse off, but if, for some reason, regulators end up with a band-aid that essentially allowances the industry, this would be a absolute for BHF.

One added agenda on actuality abbreviate BHF as allotment of a broader portfolio - I anticipate BHF is a abundant broader bazaar barrier because in best scenarios area the bazaar performs poorly, BHF will accomplish alike added poorly. Aback it has started trading, BHF has been bottomward an boilerplate of ~3.5% on canicule area the S&P 500 is bottomward added than 1.5%.

In agreement of borrow cost, Interactive Brokers has 1.3mm shares accessible for 0.3% borrow bulk so the shares are adequately accessible and bargain to borrow (as of 6/1/2018).

BHF (which is abundantly a portfolio of absolute chancy liabilities MetLife was absorbed in shedding) appears bargain because it trades at a abundant abatement to book. However, as I accept shown, book bulk is abundantly mark to archetypal and not to be relied aloft as liabilities can (and do) end up actuality anniversary multiples of what they are apparent at. GNW is a cautionary and agnate anniversary of the dangers of advance in what appears to be an undervalued insurer aback the book bulk is based about absolutely on administration estimates and assumptions. A cardinal of astute downside catalysts creates a aisle to a re-rating ~50% lower.

Exhibit A - Anatomy 10 for Aftereffect From MetLife

Exhibit B - Absolute Bazaar Share Tables for VA Sales:

Exhibit C - Papers on Capricious Annuities and Their Risks

From the insurers' perspective, however, minimum acknowledgment guarantees are long-dated put options on bazaar accident that are difficult to bulk and hedge. Imperfect ambiguity creates accident conflict that stresses risk-based basic aback the appraisal of absolute liabilities increases with a falling banal market, falling absorption rates, or ascent volatility. In fact, the Hartford Group was bailed out by the Troubled Asset Relief Affairs in June 2009 afterwards cogent losses on their capricious accomplishment business. Accustomed their admeasurement and abeyant risk, capricious annuities are an capital allotment of the addle for compassionate the allowance area added broadly.

Exhibit D - MetLife Accident Administration Presentation from 2009:

Exhibit E - Accepted Activity Accessory Guarantees: What's the Absolute Risk?

Reuters commodity on the Abeyant Reform.

Disclosure: I am/we are abbreviate BHF.

I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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